JimPinto.com - Connections for Growth & Success
No. 90 : July 03, 2002
Keeping an eye on technology futures.
Business commentary - no hidden agendas.
New attitudes, no platitudes.
- Automation Update
- Honeywell & Siemens to swap divisions (continued)
- JimPinto.com weblogs
- Technology to fight terrorism
- When will machines become 'conscious'?
- Remote medical monitoring & control
- 1 Billion PCs served
- Siemens SHOULD buy Honeywell
- Invensys(Baan) release written by buzz-word-generator(BWG)
- Choice between digital and film cameras
Honeywell & Siemens to swap divisions (continued)
In the last JimPinto.com eNews (26 June, 02) we brought the news
that Siemens and Honeywell may trade the Siemens fire protection
and building management businesses for the Honeywell process
automation business (Industry Solutions - originally Industrial
Automation and Controls, IAC), plus some cash.
Evidently, this news had not yet proliferated through the regular
channels - the traffic on the JimPinto.com website and weblogs,
and the daily signups for eNews, suddenly achieved a record level!
Here are some clarifications and updates:
No Hidden agendas: Please note that JimPinto.com is not
affiliated with anyone; we do not support and are not against any
specific company or individual. We report news from credible sources,
and only after we have confirmed with at least a couple of reliable
data points. When our sources have requested anonymity, we do not
disclose their names under any circumstances. It matters not whether
you believe or disbelieve this information. Only time will tell
whether or not these were "just rumors". Our track record speaks
Honeywell Organization: We feel we need to clarify the Honeywell
org-structure. Industrial Automation & Controls (IAC) is now known
as IS - Industry Solutions, total sales $ 0.9b, reporting to Terry
Sutter. Roger Fradin heads up Security & Fire Solutions ($1.9b),
which now includes Control Products ($ 2.2b) after Bill Ketelhut
exited (by mutual consent). ACS Services, sales $ 2.2b, reports
to John Selldorff. All these are part of Automation & Control
Solutions (Honeywell "red") that is headed up by Kevin Gilligan,
who in turn reports to David Cote, Honeywell CEO.
The Honeywell website shows ACS organization
Ketelhut exit: Bill Ketelhut was originally at GE, where he
was the product-manager of the successful Genius I/O products,
during the time of Bob Collins. After at stint as President of
GE-Microswitch, a GE/Honeywell collaboration, Ketelhut moved to
Foxboro (Invensys); he moved to Singapore for a while and then
became President of Foxboro Systems. Midst the mess of the Yurko
debacle at Invensys, Ketelhut quit. He was well known at GE and
they planned (he had a signed contract) that he would run Honeywell
IAC (Industry Solutions and Control Products) if the GE deal had
gone through. When the GE deal was squashed, Honeywell picked up
Ketelhut's contract and he stayed, ostensibly to run Control Products.
However, Ketehut was not active - he didn't want to stay without
GE in charge. His separation a year later was by "mutual consent".
It had nothing to do with the possible Siemens deal.
Honeywell denial on Siemens deal: It is highly unusual for
management to comment on rumors, particularly in writing.
Apparently, Terry Sutter wanted this email to make its way to
JimPinto.com for publication. It is included here - exactly
Date: 02-06-27 14:48:13 EDT
To: Industry Solutions Employees Worldwide
From: Terry Sutter, President, Industry Solutions
It is Honeywell's policy not to respond to rumors of acquisitions
or mergers. However, I must address an unfounded story currently
circulating outside Honeywell that's connected to Monday's
announcement of the ACS realignment.
I can tell you unequivocally that Honeywell is not in discussions with
Siemens about the Industry Solutions business. The rumor is not true
and we do not know its source. Industry Solutions remains an important
ACS business and Honeywell is counting on us for future growth.
Rumors are needlessly distracting. We have made a lot of progress on
Experion PKS with customers and employees. Let's stay focused on
meeting our customer commitments and achieving results. Keep working
to grow our business, increase productivity, reduce our cost to serve,
improve employee satisfaction, and drive Six Sigma and digitization.
Thank you for all your efforts as we work to successfully close the
Signed: Terry Sutter
It is interesting that this "official denial"
came at all. As the memo says, this is normally NEVER done.
We guess they had to say something and do it fast.
There are 2 possibilities: a/ If there is anything afoot with Siemens,
Terry Sutter does not know. Or b/ After careful consideration
by Gilligan and Cote, Sutter was told to make this denial.
It is interesting to note that 2 years ago, John Weber, President
of IS (then IAC) proclaimed loudly that IAC was NOT for sale
- just a few days before the United Technologies deal was announced.
But, Weber's discomfort was short-lived - he was gone before too long.
With hindsight, Weber was correct (but not the way he intended)
- IAC was not being sold. ALL of Honeywell was!
I invite (challenge) Terry Sutter top contact me directly to discuss
this 'rumor'. I commit that his comments and feedback will be
published without editing of any kind.
The Yahoo message board for HON has a lot of interesting comments,
mixed in with the noise.
Read for yourself - Yahoo message board - HON
Look for lots of NEW NEWS in the next days and weeks!
JimPinto.com weblog - use it!
Use the JimPinto.com weblogs to read the latest 'chat'
and review the breaking news on these important moves
by Honeywell and Siemens.
If you have any comments, updates, news or views about
Honeywell or Siemens, or from your own perspective,
Technology to fight terrorism
The National Research Council has developed a blueprint for using
current technologies and creating new capabilities to reduce the
likelihood of terrorist attacks. The lost of recommendations is
long - protecting and controlling nuclear weapons and material,
producing sufficient supplies of vaccines and antibodies, securing
shipping containers that could hide bombs or toxins, protecting power
grids more effectively, improving ventilation systems in public
buildings, emergency communications for workers responding to
disasters, and more research to find treatments for deadly diseases
that can be spread by bioterrorism and to develop new computer
programs that can "connect the dots" among apparently unrelated
fragments of intelligence information.
In response, many venture capitalists (pragmatic, not patriotic)
are now investing in security-related firms. VC firms are targeting
new portfolio investments in companies boasting innovative
security-related technology that can be utilized in the war against
terrorism. While part of the interest can be attributed to a swell
of post-9/11 patriotism, there is a more practical reason: the $38b
in new U.S. government spending slated for homeland security.
A major sea change has occurred, as venture capitalists now openly
discuss the importance of winning government contracts and taking
advantage of the government's new spending priorities. The risk?
This may only be a speculative spending bubble.
NY Times: Science-Technology Drive Is Urged to Fight Terror
When will machines become conscious?
In my view, this is not an IF question, it is merely a matter of
time before machines (or techno-humans) achieve consciousness.
Most people state (from their gut) their "belief" that machines can
NEVER equal humans in things like "common sense", "intuition" and
"love". Time and time again this is recognized as merely a "belief",
with no real justification. Of course, there is an uncomfortable
feeling one gets if one admits that someday perhaps computer
intelligence will exceed that of a human.
Technology futurist Ray Kurzweil insists that machines will indeed
achieve consciousness within the next 30 or so years (certainly by
the time my grandson gets to his father's age).
Two philosophers, a biologist, and an evolutionary theorist critique
Ray Kurzweil's prediction that computers will attain a level of
intelligence beyond human capabilities, and at least apparent
consciousness. Kurzweil responds to these critics of "strong AI."
Will Machines Become Conscious?
Are We Spiritual Machines?
Pinto: The Evolution of the TechnoHuman
Remote medical monitoring & control
This discussion of 'machine consciousness' bring me to one of
my favorite topics - the 'techno-human', or 'cyborg'. If we
don't "believe" that machines will become 'conscious', then
how about a combination of human and machine? At what level
will that combination cease to be machine? Become human?
If you define a techno-human as someone whose body combines
synthetic hardware with biological, there are already millions
among us. Every person with a pacemaker or other implanted medical
device is one. Indeed, sophisticated medical devices are making
their way into more and more parts of the body, including the
brain, cementing our cyborg destiny.
Next, what happens when the devices already implanted get
connected to the Internet? That prospect is closer than you think.
If you, or a loved one, could have better treatment through constant
monitoring and control by a remote computer, would you find any
reason to refuse? This is only the beginning of just one of the
major revolutions coming in the new century. eSpeak to me!
Business 2.0 - The Cyborgs next door
- Nearly all cardiac pacemakers and defibrillators collect data
about the heart. This data is collected wirelessly by passing
a wand-like device over the patient's chest, typically every few
months at the doctor's office. Now, Medtronic has received FDA
approval to let defibrillator patients collect the data themselves
at home and send it to their doctors by connecting the wand to a
modem. Not only will it save them a trip to the doctor's office,
but the doctors will now be able to monitor their health remotely -
and more regularly if needed. There are currently 2 million Medtronic
pacemakers and defibrillators implanted in patients' bodies that
technically have this capability, waiting to get plugged in.
- Neurological implants are used to treat advanced cases of tremor
or Parkinson's disease. With an online link, a doctor can remotely
adjust the level of neural stimulation. And, the process can be
automated, with computer monitoring and control.
- Implantable sensors could be developed to monitor organ functions,
blood pressure, glucose levels, blood toxins, and other variables,
with remote computer analysis and control of medications and dosage.
PCs: more than 1 billion served
Approximately 1 billion PCs have been shipped worldwide since the
mid-'70s, according to a recent study by consulting firm Gartner.
75% of these have gone to professional, or work-related environments,
while the other 25% have been for personal, or home, use. About
81.5% of PCs shipped have been desktops.
The billionth PC probably shipped in April 2002. But, with declining
prices, increasing use of the Internet, and growing PC use overseas,
the next billion should ship by 2007 or 2008.
- US - 38.8%
- W. Europe - 24.6%
- Asia-Pacific - 11.4%
- Japan - 9%
- Latin America - 4.1%
- Rest of world - 11.8%.
Expanding the market will require that PCs become smaller and
even less expensive than they are today, while delivering greater
functionality and performance. The demand continues because of
the power of the PC to leverage intellectual capital, unlocking
the capabilities of individuals to succeed, and companies to profit.
News.com - More than 1 billion PCs served
Intel Celebrates The Industry's 1 Billionth PC
A knowledgeable industry insider and Siemens observer wrote :
"Whether or not the current spate of rumors about Siemens buying
Honeywell IAC/IS is true, my suggestion is that Siemens OUGHT to
either get serious in this business and buy Honeywell, or Foxboro
- or they should get out! Their current position is a mess of
marginal products and non-existent marketing and sales."
The amazing Invensys(Baan) press-release that achieved 0.0 on the
Flesch reading-ease scale, attracted a lot of humor. One marketing
guru responded :
"I love this! Remember when we were writing buzz word generators?
The Invensys release was evidently written by a badly constructed
Still on the subject of the choice between digital or film cameras,
Steve Elwart [email@example.com] wrote what might be the best
summary of the current crop of feedback:
"Digital cameras have been a boon for me! On the work side, we can
take pictures of equipment and send it to the vendor for analysis
in minutes instead of days. Great for piping layouts, corrosion
analysis, and equipment repairs.
"On the personal side, while you are absolutely right on the pain to
print them out, you can take pictures of an event and put them up on
the web or make a slide show in minutes. My kids love to see
pictures of the grandkid's birthday party that same day!"
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