Half-way round the world in 90 days - thoughts on returning

My thanks to those who missed me enough to ask where I was and send greetings. And my apologies for not publishing eNews and updating JimPinto.com weblogs as often as usual. While traveling, my brain and body were heavily engaged in other directions. Perhaps that'll add to my objectivity as I get back to digesting all that I have experienced.

I left San Diego when gasoline was over $4 per gallon, and returned at less than $2. I left America when the DOW stock index was just dropping below 10,000, saw it plummet to 7,500 and then settle nervously above 8,000 after infusions of billions and promises of trillions more.

I saw the pundits prognostications that this had not happened since 2000, then 1992, then 1982, then the 1960's - and finally the great depression of the 1930's. There's an obsession with rear-view-mirror analysis, with no recognition that the world has changed so much, making it useless to look backwards.

I left when the Bush Administration was still stubbornly calling the decline a "recession" until the world finally recognized that this was something never before experienced. And they kept throwing money to bailout banks, and then the automakers - they couldn't think of anything else to do.

After the "dotcom" bust came the housing boom fuelled by "liar-loans" and banking excesses which were now being "bailed out". Credible financial observers have been forecasting this collapse for more than a decade, but no one wants to hear bad news. And the profligate practices progressed.

Europe and most other parts of the world are also in recession, as foreign investments fled and their markets plunged. I actually gained with my dollar exchanges when the British pound and the Indian Rupee plummeted.

My own view is that this is indeed an inflection point, an event as serious as a financial 9/11, a serious break from the past, a wake-up call from the illusions of "the good old days".

It's good for America, and the world, to get back to basic bedrock concepts such as hard-work, productivity, knowledge, innovation, competition, discipline, education, friendship, loyalty, patriotism.

Stop for a moment to add to the list the things that YOU care about.

The world economy - Bad, or worse?

Economists see longest recession since WW II

The world banking system sham

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Jim Pinto bucket-list report #2

After a stimulating conference (where I spouted Technology Futures as the Keynote Speaker) I went with my hosts on a visit to the "Big-5" - Lions, Leopards, Elephants, Rhinos and Buffalo - so named because these were the dangerous prizes for the big-game hunters; these days they roam midst natural surroundings in protected parks.

We drove to the Pilansburg Reserve, 3-4 hours from Johannesburg. The hotel was as luxurious as anywhere in the world, with separate jungle-huts, outfitted with all the amenities and conveniences - private bath and outdoor shower, settee on a porch to lounge in the late evening, listening to jungle noises - some animals actually come to the nearby fence, I was told.

The next day we went off on the Big-5 trek with a wonderful local guide - 23-year-old white S. African who had a zoology degree and experience in several major wild-animal parks in Southern Africa. We went out twice a day - 5:30 AM (the guide gave you a wake-up call at 5:00 AM, to catch the sunrise as we set out; and 4:30 PM (back at about 9:00 pm).

We saw herds of zebra and wildebeest grazing together with many different species of deer. Interestingly, one of our group is color-blind and midst the jungle camouflage, he'd always be the first to spot animals from a distance - giraffes, elephants, rhinos, lions, hyenas, buffalo - we didn't get to see always elusive leopards. We stopped to see lions crossing the road, and zebras and then elephants too. With a little zooming, I got lots of fairly good close-up pictures. During the first night, a big female elephant was protecting her herd, blocking the road back to base; the guide thought it safer to return via another roundabout route, which took another hour, in pitch black.

The second day we saw two young lions (brothers) stalking a herd of zebra and wildebeest. A zebra which had been separate from the lions had seen them approach, and continued screaming warnings which we hoped the others wouldn't hear. Well, perhaps they did, because they moved off and we didn't get to satisfy that bloodthirsty tourist urge to witness a kill.

This was my very first trip to S. Africa, and I spent a remaining day trying to catch up with my thoughts about this beautiful country. South Africa is a nation of over 47-million people of diverse origins, cultures, languages and beliefs. The country's population is about 48 million; with black Africans in the majority, making up about 80% of the total; whites are estimated at just over 9%, colored (mixed) just a little less than 9%) and Indians/Asians about 2.5%.

After Apartheid was eliminated in 1994, the blacks seem to be very forgiving, though they are mostly poor. The largest tribes are Zulus; I listened happily to music on a Zulu radio station on the way to and from the airport - with a liberal sprinkling of English words and phrases; Zulenglish?

After 9.5 hours, non-stop flight on S. African Air, I arrived in Mumbai, India, where the terror-attacks happened about a week later. I didn't know anyone actually involved, but several friends and business associates who I work with were quite near.

As I wrote this, I was in Bangalore (where I was born). But that story will have to wait for my Bucket List report #3.

Pinto 'bucket-list' trip

Jim Pinto bucket-list Report #1

Big-5 Game

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Automation majors encounter turbulence

Here are my own observations regarding recent happenings. Much of my input comes from the frequent weblogs (links below) which admittedly include pessimists who have nowhere else to vent their frustrations. For most industry observers, the weblogs represent a valuable source of information regarding things that do NOT appear in the regular corporate press-releases.

Invensys

CEO Ulf Henriksson appointed ex-EDS executive Paulett Eberhart as President of Invensys Process Systems about 2 years ago. He then allowed her to take the major step of moving IPS HQ from Foxboro, MA. to Plano, TX. near Dallas, close to the former EDS headquarters and her own home. There were no specific reasons given other than that the move seemed to suit her strategy of developing IPS into a consulting and services company modeled on EDS. She then proceeded to recruit key executives, many from EDS, with no experience of the process automation industry. Several key executives with automation backgrounds departed.

After all these drastic changes, last week, Ulf suddenly announced that Paulett was no longer at Invensys IPS, and he was "stepping in as Acting President and CEO of IPS with immediate effect". Clearly she had been fired. No one was told why. Clearly too, there was no internal successor.

The weblogs are rife with speculation. After Ulf's successive mistakes, some questioned his ability to select executives. Many think the selection of Ken Brown as IPS chief would have had good results and eliminated all this nonsense.

Midst all this turmoil, and after the arrival of Sir Nigel Rudd to lead the Invensys Board, it remains to be seen who Ulf will select to head IPS. Perhaps he himself will resign. Or be fired.

Invensys weblog

Honeywell

Companies don't really do any press-releases on layoffs, especially when jobs keep being transferred overseas. So it's understandable that weblogs chronicle the complaints - from those who have been riffed, those who bear the brunt of the remaining workload, and those who are responsible for training their own offshore replacements. Some of these weblogs expound very sensibly, at great length.

A long term Honeyweller points poignantly that H*ONE*ywell has become the Power of "one", with David Cote in the middle as the ONE employee and everyone else eligible for being outsourced.

The Honeywell weblog was the first to announce (before the trade press received any announcements) that Jack Bolick, President of Honeywell Process Systems, had suddenly "retired". After first being told he was moving to Houston, (which indicates some turbulence) I was sorry to note his sudden departure.

I respect Jack Bolick. He deserves a lot of credit for re-establishing Honeywell Process Systems as an industry leader following the debacle of the failed merger with GE in 2001.

Honeywell weblog

Rockwell

After a series of write-downs and badly handled layoffs, Rockwell is struggling to make headway and its stock dropped to about 30% of the 12-month high.

The Rockwell weblog continues to report significant turmoil, centered around layoffs in various locations, and compounded by the news (not verified, but not denied) that CEO Keith Nosbusch and other executives had received big bonuses.

Lots of noise from UK and the Far East. Rockwell is shuffling distribution channels in an attempt to generate growth, which remains elusive. Recently, the company took the unusual step of firing ALL its distributors in Australia and New Zealand, and appointed just one to cover the entire territory. Naturally, this set off a round of reactions. Read the Rockwell weblogs.

One comedian (perhaps prescient?) predicted a merger of Invensys and Rockwell. Remember, "Pig + pig = piglets".

Rockwell weblog

Stay tuned - read the weblogs.

Read more in Andrew Bond's Automation Insider

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2009 automation top technology & market trends

Industrial Wireless: Wired systems keep getting more expensive and difficult to install, while wireless monitoring keeps getting cheaper and easier. Wireless is shaping up to generate significant new automation markets, and stimulating visions of growth.

Machine-to-machine (M2M) communications: The convergence of smart devices with the Internet is creating a new inflection point. M2M is focused on the issues of how machines communicate, how they are managed, how the data and information within them can be utilized to add significant new value.

Security Services: Most of today's automation & control systems use the same hardware, operating system and communications as widely deployed personal, office and administrative networks. Worms and trojans can enter plants and factories via the Internet and through Intranets, plus deliberate intrusion through wired or wireless networks. Automation systems security has become an urgent issue and will be a major growth arena.

Complex Adaptive Systems: At the input/output level, most of today's systems are clumps of I/O connected in deterministic, hierarchical systems, prone to failure when complexity increases. By contrast, programmable, intelligent, autonomous I/O systems with algorithmic (rule-based) response mechanisms have no theoretical complexity limit. During the next decade, this type of system will improve performance and robustness (failure-proof) at a fraction of the cost of conventional systems.

Disappearing Software: Just as today's firmware is not external and separate, software will become part of the product. The only external software needed will be in the browser. Everything else will be "applets" and similar "client-side" operations, triggered by "objects" and "agents" that reside within the system.

2008 Pinto's Pointers - Technologies & Markets

ISA InTech eNews - Top trends for the next decade

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eFeedback

"Our first president, George Washington, the father of our country, along with the other founding fathers of our nation, made the break from King & Privilege, to a Republic. Keep in mind, our founding fathers were not in favor of democracies, having seen what happened in the past.

"The next big shift in freedom & democracy, was President Lincoln freeing the slaves. Then FDR ranks almost with Lincoln, in the social upheaval where the working class achieved a more equitable place in our society, and minorities and Blacks & immigrants were recognized as true Americans, not "ethnics".

"Obama, will be a major shift to a truer democracy, in what is a historic shift. So, these are historic times, for better or for worse. Only time will tell."

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Richard Walls [jock609@hotmail.com] from Scotland disputes my claim that Americans are the most productive and creative. He writes:

"Compared on an hour-by hour-basis, there are three European nations that are more productive than America. America is only the most productive because its work force generally work longer hours than Europeans. If Europeans worked similar number of hours, then America would slip to fourth place.

"It could also be argued that if some Eastern nations had the communication infrastructure that America has, then they would be at the top of the list.

"I also suspect that America is not the most creative nation on earth. This appears so simply because of the numbers of people and the wealth that is there. If other countries had the wealth that America has, then I think that you would find greater creativity elsewhere.

"I would be interested to see statistics on number of Nobel prizes per head of population. Scotland, a nation of approximately 5 million people would have to be near the top. (Although a national bias may be creeping in there....)"

Nobel prize laureates (per capita) by country

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Dave Allen [Dave.Allen@genmills.com] comments on battery power in wireless mesh networks:

"Mesh networks fascinate me, and I have eagerly waited for wireless technology most of my 34 year career. But, I think you casually overlook one key point. Until we find out a way to power these without having to change batteries or hook up 120 volt AC, there will be resistance. Just ask cell phone users how much they enjoy their battery life problems and calls ending due to that continuing problem.

"The battery powered instruments are not reliable enough for robust automation that is dependable, and the powered ones are NOT truly wireless. If I have to run power wire, I might as well run communication wire."

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